How Viral IQ works

Predict whether a YouTube video will hit its viral threshold in 24 hours. Earn points for being right — and earn more for betting early.

The basics

Each video has a viral target — a view count it needs to hit within 24 hours of posting to count as viral. The target is unique to each channel based on their typical performance.


You predict YES (it will hit the target) or NO (it won't). Betting locks before the 24h window closes. After 24h, results are final.

How the viral target is set

The app looks at the channel's last 30 videos and finds the median view count — what a typical video gets. That becomes the baseline.


Not all views come on day one. Bigger channels get a larger first-day spike because more subscribers watch immediately. A factor is applied based on subscriber count:

Under 100k subscribers20% of baseline in 24h
100k – 1M subscribers25% of baseline in 24h
1M – 10M subscribers30% of baseline in 24h
Over 10M subscribers35% of baseline in 24h

The viral target is 3× that first-day estimate, rounded to a clean number. A video has to do 3x better than a normal video for this channel to count as viral.

Example — 500k subscriber channel

Median video views200,000
First 24h estimate (25%)50,000
Viral target (3×)150,000

Points and early bonus

When you place a bet, you wager a number of points. Betting early earns a multiplier that boosts both your potential winnings and softens your loss if you're wrong.


The multiplier

Starts at when the video is first posted and decays linearly to by the time betting locks. The earlier you bet, the higher the multiplier.

Bet at the very start3.00×
Bet halfway through2.00×
Bet right before lock~1.00×

If you win

You receive your stake multiplied by the early bonus at the time you bet.

Example — 1,000 pt bet at 2.30×

Stake1,000 pts
Multiplier2.30×
Payout+2,300 pts

If you lose

You lose your stake, but get a small consolation refund for having bet early. The refund is a quarter of the bonus portion of your multiplier.

Example — 1,000 pt bet at 2.30×

Stake1,000 pts
Bonus portion (multiplier − 1)1.30×
Consolation refund (÷ 4)325 pts
Net loss−675 pts

Someone who bets at 1× (right before lock) wins exactly their stake and loses their full stake — no bonus either way.

Starting balance

Every new account starts with 1,000 points. There's no way to buy more — your balance is purely a reflection of how well you predict.